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Title:
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Voter turnout and ideological ballot measure success in California, 1912-2009
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Author:
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Oneto, Kurt Ryan
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Abstract:
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Many campaign professionals in California rely on the assumption that “liberal” ballot measures enjoy a higher likelihood of success in high turnout elections, and that “conservative” ballot measures enjoy a higher likelihood of success in low turnout elections. Significant sums of campaign money and manpower are often allocated on the basis of this assumption. However, academic research has largely, if not wholly, ignored the relationship between voter turnout levels and ideological ballot measure outcomes.
Sources of Data
All California statewide ballot propositions that appeared on the ballot between 1912 and 2009 were reviewed. A total of 237 “liberal” ballot measures and 173 “conservative” ballot measures were identified. Each of these broader categories were broken down into two sub-categories: economic/governmental and moral/social.
The percentage of the votes cast in favor of each of these measures and the California Secretary of State’s historical voter turnout statistics were analyzed to determine if a relationship exists between voter turnout levels and the percentage of votes cast for, or against, ideological ballot measures in California.
Conclusions Reached
No statistically significant positive correlation was observed between the level of voter turnout and the “yes” vote share for liberal ballot measures in California. A statistically significant negative correlation was observed between the level of voter turnout and the “yes” vote share for conservative ballot measures in California. The
relationship was significant for both economic/governmental conservative measures and moral/social conservative measures. |
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Description:
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Thesis (M.A., Government) -- California State University, Sacramento, 2009. |
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URI:
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http://hdl.handle.net/10211.9/191
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Date:
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2010-06-15 |
