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Abstract:
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Previous research has found that state-level election outcomes in U.S. presidential elections display an “income-contingent” pattern: voters in high-income states are influenced by economic factors like inflation, while voters in low-income states are persuaded more by income growth. This thesis tests whether there are also income-contingent voting patterns in U.S. gubernatorial elections. Additionally, it extends previous work on gubernatorial elections in many directions by including data from far more elections, introducing new explanatory variables, and improved econometric methods. The evidence presented in this thesis shows that there are also income-contingent voting patterns in U.S. gubernatorial elections, although the factors that depend on income differ from what has been found in presidential elections. In addition, political factors, such as challenger candidate spending, whether an incumbent is running, presidential approval, and whether a candidate is of the same political party as the U.S. President also influence the outcomes of gubernatorial elections. |
